The Serious Violence SNA was submitted to the VRU in January 2024 and as previous mentioned, its production was a requirement of the Serious Violence Duty. It covers a broad range of data sets from BCSP partners on the subject of serious violence as well as descriptive narrative as to what the data is telling us about the reasons for the direction of travel on certain offences. This summary covers those key points relating to the data, picking out outliers of offences and emerging trends.

Included within the SNA are gaps and recommendations for the BCSP Serious Violence Working Group to consider alongside the data and these will, where applicable, feed into the VVRAP as partner actions. The SNA will be monitored and refreshed at the end of 2024 by the local authority data analysts to see how these data sets have changed following interventions throughout the year.

Unless otherwise stated, the comparable data within the SNA covers the period from October to September. This was to ensure that the assessment was completed within the timeframe for submission in January. Other datasets are for the calendar year.

Serious violence crime offences (domestic abuse)

In Bexley, there have been a total of 2,220 serious violence offences flagged as domestic abuse during October 2022 to September 2023. This is a 3.96% increase compared to 2308 offences for the same period in the previous year. The most common category of serious violence flagged as domestic abuse was 'violence against the person', with 1459 offences, an increase of 2.73% against the previous twelve months. A year-on-year comparison (September 2022 to October 2023 vs September 2021 to October 2022) shows an increase in all serious violence crime types, except for robbery, grievous bodily harm and sexual assault, which saw a decrease. In Bexley, the highest number of domestic abuse flagged serious violence offences took place in around the North of the borough, with Slade Green and Northend, Belvedere, Erith and Thamesmead East wards showing the most cases. Observation from the Metropolitan Police states that domestic abuse is prevalent, although not exclusive, in areas of high deprivation, and analysis evidences this observation. MARAC data shows a growing number of repeat referrals although this can be seen as a positive that this data is being captured and relationships where there is a high risk of domestic abuse are being tracked and monitored. Bexley sitting towards high end of the SafeLives threshold.

Youth Justice Service (YJS) - Serious youth violence

There has been a 38.4% decrease in the number of serious youth violence offences from 66 (October 2021 to September 2022) to 43 (October 2022 to September 2023). Weapon-related youth violence saw the highest number of offences across both years. There were no serious violence drug offences during the most recent year compared to 16 in the previous year. We have seen an increase in 'violence against the person' offences over the past two years, which is due to a lower number of offences during Covid lockdown. Violence in schools make up a large proportion of these offences so while schools were closed/young people not attending schools, there was a reduction in these incidents. There has been a reduction in first-time entrants (FTEs) to the Youth Justice Service and a downward trend across the two years being analysed.

Adults social care and serious violence

There has been a 70.6% increase in the number of safeguarding adults enquiries during the twelve-month period October 2022 to September 2023 (116 enquiries), compared to the same period in the previous year (68 enquiries). This increase is due to the COVID-19 pandemic coming to an end and the subsequent increase in reporting of safeguarding reports. During the COVID-19 pandemic, safeguarding numbers were lower. The majority of safeguarding enquiries made during both years were for concern of females (68.1% during the most recent twelve months compared to70.6% in the previous year), and the largest proportion of enquiries received were for adults aged over 25 (87.9% during the most recent twelve months compared to 86.8% in the previous year). The largest proportion of enquiries made in both years were due to ‘physical abuse’ concerns, followed by ‘domestic abuse’. A higher number of sexual abuse concerns were raised during the most recent twelve months (19.0%) compared to the year previous (7.4%).

London Fire Brigade and serious violence

The number of arson-related incidents has decreased with 66 in between October 2022 and September 2023 against 107 in the previous twelve months, a drop of 38%. London Fire Service put this down to a significant decrease in arson related to businesses. Erith station recorded the highest number of call-outs for arson-related incidents and the largest reduction, with 34 call-outs between October 2022 and September 2023 against 53 in the previous twelve months. Reasons for this are that there are a large number of industrial estates in the north of the borough. In addition, this area is remote and, therefore, more easily targeted, as opposed to the centre of the borough where it is more enclosed.

Local community's perception of serious violence

A survey was distributed to both residents and professionals working within this sector. In the residents’ survey, no respondents felt there had been a decrease in serious violence within the local area. Residents provided a mixed response as to whether they have trust in confidence in police to deal with serious violence and feelings around safety within the local area, ranging from “very unsafe” to “somewhat safe.” 84% of respondents to the professionals’ survey for this SNA feel that serious violence has increased within the last 12 months. No respondents feel there has been a decrease in serious violence.

Most professionals commented on the police being under-resourced, and this means that thoroughness of investigations (especially if response officers are attending an incident), and proactiveness to prevent serious violence, suffers. In turn, professionals believe the public are less willing to report incidents as they do not see outcomes. Most respondents to the professionals’ survey said they feel safe in LB Bexley (83%), however, 8% said they felt “somewhat unsafe” within Bexley borough (these respondents are both female and reported feeling particularly unsafe after dark). None of the respondents from either the professionals’ survey or the residents’ survey reported being a victim of serious violence within the Bexley borough.